Basics of Probability and Statistics Week 1 Challenge

Stratified Sampling:

Purpose: Stratified sampling is used when the population can be divided into distinct, non-overlapping subgroups (called strata) that are meaningful to the study. The goal is to ensure that every subgroup is properly represented in the sample.
Process:
- The population is divided into strata based on a characteristic or variable (e.g., age, gender, income).
- Random samples are then taken from each of these strata, either proportionally (proportional stratified sampling) or equally (equal allocation).
- Each stratum is treated as a separate mini-population, and the sample is drawn from each stratum independently.
Example: Suppose you're conducting a survey on job satisfaction among employees in a company. You divide employees into strata based on their department (e.g., marketing, sales, finance). You then randomly sample employees from each department to ensure all departments are represented in your study.
Advantages:
- Ensures that all important subgroups are represented.
- Can lead to more precise estimates for each subgroup and the overall population.
Disadvantages:
- Requires detailed knowledge of the population and its subgroups.
- Can be complex to implement if there are many strata.

Cluster Sampling:

Purpose: Cluster sampling is used when the population is too large or geographically spread out, making it impractical or costly to sample individuals directly. The goal is to divide the population into clusters and then randomly select some of these clusters for study.
Process:
- The population is divided into clusters, which are often naturally occurring groups (e.g., households, schools, cities).
- A random sample of clusters is selected.
- All or a random sample of individuals within the selected clusters are surveyed.
Example: If you were conducting a survey about school performance in a country, you might divide the country into clusters of schools. You would then randomly select a few schools, and survey all students within those schools.
Advantages:
- More cost-effective and practical, especially when the population is large and geographically dispersed.
- Can be easier to administer because you sample within clusters rather than across the entire population.
Disadvantages:
- Clusters may not be as diverse as the population as a whole, which can introduce bias.
- It might be less accurate compared to stratified sampling if the clusters are not representative of the broader population.

Key Differences:

Feature	Stratified Sampling	Cluster Sampling
Division of Population	Divided into distinct subgroups (strata) based on a characteristic.	Divided into groups or clusters, which are often naturally occurring.
Sampling Method	Random sampling within each stratum.	Randomly selecting entire clusters or groups.
Purpose	To ensure all subgroups are represented.	To reduce cost and effort, especially for large populations.
Example	Stratified by age, income, or gender, and sample from each group.	Divided by geographical location or school, and sample whole clusters.
Precision	Tends to provide more precise estimates for each subgroup.	Less precise, especially if clusters are homogeneous.
Cost	Can be more expensive, especially if strata are hard to identify or access.	More cost-effective for large or dispersed populations.

In short, stratified sampling ensures representation from key subgroups, while cluster sampling simplifies the process by focusing on groups as a whole, often used when it’s impractical to sample individuals directly.

3. How many different samples can be created out of population of size n

$n$ depends on the type of sampling you're doing. Let's explore two common scenarios:

1. Simple Random Sampling (without replacement):

In this case, you're choosing a sample of size $k$ from the population of size $n$ , and each element of the population can only be selected once.

The number of different possible samples of size $k$ is given by the combination formula:

(\binom{n}{k}) = \frac{n!}{k! (n - k)!}

Where:

$n!$ is the factorial of $n$ (i.e., $n! = n \times (n - 1) \times (n - 2) \times \dots \times 1$ ),
$k$ is the sample size,
$(\binom{n}{k})$ is the number of combinations or ways to choose $k$ elements from a population of size $n$ .

For example, if you have a population of size 5 ( $n = 5$ ) and you're selecting a sample of size 2 ( $k = 2$ ), the number of different samples is:

(\binom{5}{2}) = \frac{5!}{2! (5 - 2)!} = \frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1} = 10

This means there are 10 different ways to choose 2 elements from a population of 5.

2. Simple Random Sampling (with replacement):

In this case, each element of the population can be selected more than once. When selecting a sample of size $k$ from a population of size $n$ with replacement, the number of different samples is given by:

n^{k}

Where:

$n$ is the size of the population,
$k$ is the sample size,
$n^{k}$ represents the number of ways you can select $k$ items from $n$ items with repetition.

For example, if the population size is 5 ( $n = 5$ ) and you are selecting a sample of size 2 ( $k = 2$ ) with replacement, the number of different samples is:

5^{2} = 25

This means there are 25 different possible samples of size 2 when sampling with replacement from a population of 5.

Summary:

Without replacement (simple random sampling): The number of samples of size $k$ from a population of size $n$ is $(\binom{n}{k})$ .
With replacement (simple random sampling): The number of samples of size $k$ from a population of size $n$ is $n^{k}$ .

4. What is the probability of drawing 2 jacks from a pack of card?

total number of cards=52

total number of jacks =4

Probability of drawing First Jack= 4/52

Probability of drawing Second Jack= 3/51

Combined Probability of getting 2 Jacks= 1/13 x 1/17= 1/221

5. What is the probability that both the numbers on dice are same while rolling 2 dice?

Each dice has 6 faces. Rolling two faces.

Total number of possible Outcomes-- 6 x6=36

For both dice to come with same outcomes

(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)

There are 6 favorable outcomes.

Probability

The probability of both dice showing the same number is:

$P(\text{Same Numbers}) = \frac{\text{Favorable Outcomes}}{\text{Total Outcomes}} = \frac{6}{36} = \frac{1}{6}$

The probability that both numbers on the dice are the same is:

$\boxed{\frac{1}{6}}$

6. Why standard deviation when variance can measure the dispersion in data?

While variance effectively measures the dispersion in a dataset, standard deviation is often preferred in practice due to its interpretability and alignment with the original data's scale.

Variance is the average of squared deviations from the mean, so its unit is the square of the original data's unit. For example:

If data is in meters, variance is in square meters (m²).
Standard deviation, being the square root of variance, has the same unit as the original data, Variance lacks this direct interpretability because its units are squared.
In a normal distribution:
- About 68% of data lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean.
- About 95% lies within 2 standard deviations.
- This makes standard deviation a natural choice for describing data spread.
Variance, being squared, does not align as directly with these proportions.
1. Variance and Handling Negative Deviations

Variance measures the average squared deviations from the mean. Squaring serves two purposes:
- Eliminating negatives: Without squaring, deviations below the mean would cancel out those above the mean, leading to a misleading result.
- Emphasizing larger deviations: Squaring amplifies the impact of larger deviations, making variance sensitive to outliers.

2. Standard Deviation as the Square Root of Variance

Taking the square root of variance brings the measure back to the original unit of the data, making it easier to interpret.
Why this matters: While variance quantifies spread, its unit (e.g., $\text{m}^2$ ) makes it less intuitive. Standard deviation directly reflects how data points deviate in the same unit as the data (e.g., $\text{m}$ ).

3. Control Over Spread

Standard deviation is particularly useful when the data points are not too widely spread. It provides a concise summary of the dispersion, showing how tightly the data clusters around the mean.
Example: If the standard deviation is small, it indicates that most data points are close to the mean, reflecting low variability.

4. Why Standard Deviation is Preferred

Practical Interpretability: It tells us how much variation exists within the dataset in terms of the original data's scale.
Statistical Relevance: In many models (e.g., normal distribution), standard deviation helps determine probabilities, confidence intervals, and z-scores, making it a cornerstone of statistical analysis.

Basics of Probability and Statistics Week 1 Challenge

1. Population Variance:

2. Sample Variance:

Why the Difference?

Summary:

Stratified Sampling:

Cluster Sampling:

Key Differences:

1. Simple Random Sampling (without replacement):

2. Simple Random Sampling (with replacement):

Summary:

Probability

The probability that both numbers on the dice are the same is:

2. Standard Deviation as the Square Root of Variance

3. Control Over Spread

4. Why Standard Deviation is Preferred

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Stratified Sampling:

Cluster Sampling:

Key Differences:

ChatGPT said:

1. Simple Random Sampling (without replacement):

2. Simple Random Sampling (with replacement):

Summary:

Probability

The probability that both numbers on the dice are the same is:

2. Standard Deviation as the Square Root of Variance

3. Control Over Spread

4. Why Standard Deviation is Preferred